And the Longhorns make a move past the Trojans!

Texas edging USC is huge, but there’s very little movement otherwise. Texas Tech dropped out of the top ten (after losing to Texas), and the Florida State Seminoles take up position No. 10. LSU dropped a few spots, and UCLA and Miami both moved up and switched places with each other.

The Tennessee Volunteers drop out of the top 25 altogether after losing to the Crimson Tide. The Vols are now officially more than just mostly dead; they are really most sincerely dead.

At least in the Race to the Rose Bowl. But I’m one of those that can enjoy my team even when there are no championships on the line, and I’m not bailing.

Plus, the Race can still be exciting even if your horse has come up lame. Just pick another horse! I’m going with the Hokies.

Upcoming games with the potential to radically impact the Race include:

• Georgia at Florida, October 29, 2005 (3:30, CBS)
• Virginia Tech v. Miami, November 5, 2005
• USC at California, November 12, 2005
• LSU at Alabama, November 12, 2005 (3:30, CBS, maybe)
• Texas at Texas A&M, November 25, 2005 (12:00, ABC)
• Florida State at Florida, November 26, 2005 (3:30, CBS)
• UCLA at USC, December 3, 2005 (4:30, ABC)

• Week Seven
• Week Six
• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

College Football News’ weekly Road to the Rose Bowl is out. Remaining in the hunt are:

• Seven Unbeaten Contenders, including SEC teams Georgia and Alabama;
• Nine No Margin for Errors, including LSU and Auburn.

The Tennessee Volunteers can improve their position significantly by beating Unbeaten Contender Alabama at Tuscaloosa this weekend.

The season’s first Bowl Championship Series rankings are out, so my weekly Race to the Rose Bowl will now be based on the BCS rankings instead of on the Coaches’ Poll.

Here’s how the first BCS top ten shapes up:

Newcomers UCLA and Texas Tech find themselves in the top ten with 6-0 records, while Florida State dropped after a loss to Virginia.

Notre Dame dropped and starts the BCS race at No. 16, which I think is way too low. How often do you lose a game by making a Heisman Trophy winner fumble the ball?

And while I’m on that topic, while USC deserved to win that game because they made big play after big play every time they needed to, Notre Dame also deserved to win because they executed an ingenious game plan almost to perfection and only lost because of a couple of bad breaks at the very end. Had Matt Leinart not fumbled the ball on the second to last play of the game, the clock would have run out and the Fighting Irish would have won. Had the officials spotted the ball on the three yard line (where the ball went out of bounds) instead of the one yard line (where Leinart landed), the game would certainly have been different is some way. And had USC tailback Reggie Bush not pushed (I heard someone say that that’s not even legal, but I don’t know) a back-peddling-for-a-second-chance Leinart into the end zone, the Irish would have won.

Notre Dame has lost two games: one they would have won had they not had three breaks go against them, and one in overtime to a good Michigan State team. They deserve to be ranked higher than No. 16.

This slight tangentially affects the Tennessee Volunteers, who need to play (and beat) as many good teams as they can in order to improve their standing. The Vols start the BCS race at No. 19, and highlights of their resume to this point include:

• a loss at Florida when the Gators were ranked No. 7 (now ranked No. 20);
• a big win at LSU when the Tigers were ranked No. 4. (now No. 5); and
• a loss to Georgia when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 4 (still No. 4).

Tennessee is scheduled to play No. 5 Alabama this Saturday and a should-be-in-the-top-ten Notre Dame team two weeks after that. In between those two big games, they host Steve Spurrier and South Carolina.

• Week Six
• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

College Football News’ Road to the Rose Bowl is up.

Nine Unbeaten Contenders remain, including SEC teams Georgia and Alabama. There are 14 No Margin for Errors, including LSU, Florida, and Auburn. Notre Dame is also a No Margin for Error.

Tennessee, of course, suffered a “crippling loss” against the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday, but as I said earlier, while the Rose Bowl is out of the question, they’re merely mostly dead.

Something really struck me while I was writing this post.

WARNING! PREPARE YOURSELF FOR SHOCKING NEWS:

The Tennessee Volunteers are not dead yet. Okay, so maybe they’re mostly dead, but as Miracle Max said in The Princess Bride, “There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.”

But before I get to that, here are the top ten horses after Week Six:

Okay, so here’s what happened this past weekend. Ohio State, who lost to Penn State, and Tennessee dropped out of the top ten, and Miami consequently moved up two spots to No. 6. California dropped out after losing to UCLA, and Alabama consequently moved up behind Miami. LSU found itself back in the hunt at No. 8, and newcomers Notre Dame and Penn State entered the race at Nos. 9 and 10 respectively.

Tennessee tumbled all the way to No. 18 after losing to the Georgia Bulldogs.

Not to say the drop is unjustified at all, but really, look at their schedule:

• Lost at Florida when the Gators were ranked No. 7.
• Won at LSU when the Tigers were ranked No. 4.
• Lost against Georgia when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 4.
• Scheduled to play Alabama (currently No. 7) next and Notre Dame (currently No. 9) later.

If (and yes, it’s a big if) the Volunteers can win against Alabama and Notre Dame, they will have won three of five games against top ten opponents. Is that really the end of the world as we know it? What if Notre Dame can upset USC this weekend at South Bend? (Okay, okay, I know. If they beat USC, we haven’t got a chance against them, but dream with me, won’t you?)

Yes, Tennessee’s two losses will have been against SEC East opponents Florida and Georgia and will have cost them any shot at an SEC or even an SEC East title. And because of that, they have no chance at the Rose Bowl. But they should still be able to get back into the top ten with quality wins against the Crimson Tide and the Irish.

Of course, with the way the Vols have been playing, predicting any win is a risky proposition, but the point remains:

The Volunteers are only mostly dead.

• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

John Pennington makes the case for a change in the Tennessee Volunteers’ football philosophy.

Like any good argument, Pennington’s starts by establishing a solid factual premise. The stats, he says, clearly show that the Volunteer football program is on the decline:

• The Johnny Majors Era. From 1985 to 1992, Tennessee got blown out (defined as losing by 13 points or more) only once every season on average.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part I. From 1992 to 2001, the Vols got blown out, on average, once every two and a half seasons.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part II. Since 2002, the Vols are being blown out about twice per season.

Having established the first premise, Pennington sets up the second, that the reason for the decline is a failure to adapt to changing times:

But I do believe that Fulmer needs to realize that the game has “caught up” with him a bit. Since the Vols’ terrible 2nd half vs LSU in 2001 (that cost them a slot in the BCS National Title Game), the Vols have gone from GREAT to GOOD.

In other words, what worked with Manning & Lewis, Martin & Henry and Shuler & Garner… hasn’t worked as well with Clausens, Houstons, and Riggs running many of the same plays. (Those are all good players, but they’re not early-round NFL draft pick-type players).

* * * *

This isn’t a unique phenomenon. Steve Spurrier ruled the SEC roost for nearly a decade, only to see the rest of the league catch up to him around the turn of the century… dropping his Gators to a yearly 9-2 level. (Still quite good, but not a National Title contender.) Rather than adjust, Spurrier fled to the pros. Now that he’s back in the SEC, will he adjust his system to match his talents? We’ll see.

Pennington then concludes that Coach Fulmer should remedy the failure to adapt to the times by reconsidering his football philosophy. Perhaps a “tweak,” sort of like Joe Paterno’s, whose chucking of the I-don’t-play-freshman world view has led to Penn State’s best start in years.

Or perhaps something more drastic, like Bear Bryant’s legendary 1971 scrapping of Alabama’s traditional offensive scheme in favor of the wishbone, which Pennington said “was equivalent to the Mississippi River running backwards.”

Pennington’s conclusion:

The point is this, if a coach isn’t moving forward, he’s moving backward. The coaches with the greatest longevity and success are the ones who are able to re-invent themselves (or at least “tweak” their systems) when there are signs of cracks in the foundation.

I believe the stats above show cracks in the foundation. The SEC and the nation are catching up to Phillip Fulmer. Will he be willing to make some changes? Or will he suffer the consequences of standing still?

Time will tell.

Fixin to head down to Knoxville and Neyland Stadium with Freaktoe to see the Tennessee Vols take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Hoping for a big win.

Of course, the Vols need a big win to stay in the Race to the Rose Bowl. Here are the other important games in the Race, from a Rocky Top perspective:

Best Chances for the Volunteers to Advance

• No. 2 Texas v. Oklahoma. The Red River Shootout has been the other UT’s can’t-get-over-the-hump game for years. They should get it done this year against a sub-par Oklahoma team, but the Longhorns could suffer adverse consequences from the Spotlight Effect.
• No. 6 Ohio State v. Penn State. Ohio State probably wins this one, but as-yet undefeated Penn State is on a mini-roll, and might pull off an upset.

Long Shots for the Volunteers to Advance

• No. 1 Southern Cal v. Arizona.
• No. 3 Virginia Tech v. Marshall.
• No. 5 Florida State v. Wake Forest.

College Football News’ weekly Road to the Rose Bowl is up. There are 6 Unbeaten Contenders (Southern Cal, Texas, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama), 6 Unbeaten Longshots (Cal, Wisconsin, Penn State, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Nebraska), and 17 No Margin for Errors (including Tennessee). The Tennessee Volunteers get a couple of chances to decrease the number of Unbeaten Contenders over the next couple of weeks, as they host the Georgia Bulldogs this Saturday (CFN’s lock-yourself-in-a-room-to-watch game) and travel to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide two weeks after that.

It’s not exactly a closely-guarded secret that the Tennessee Volunteers are acutely affected by others’ impressions of them. As a general rule, great expectations lead to great disappointments (either an outright loss or an unimpressive win) and double-digit spreads motivate them to prove everyone wrong.

This phenomenon occurs both collectively and on an individual level. If you haven’t noticed it yet, watch it for awhile, and it will become clear.

As one corporate example, the 1997 team was led by Peyton Manning and staffed with NFL talent, but they underachieved (a bit). The next year, there were essentially no expectations for the entire season. After all, Peyton was gone, and Tee Martin had never started a game. When Jamal Lewis was hurt early in the season, all hopes went down the drain. But by the end of the season, the team was undefeated and ranked number 1 in the country. Even then, though, their opponent — a one-loss Florida State Seminole team — was favored to win the BCS National Championship game. Heck, after they won, the commentators chalked the Vol win up to the fact that FSU had to play with a third-string quarterback.

The next year, with essentially the same team returning (plus Jamal Lewis), the expectations were again sky high, and the team underachieved yet again.

On the individual level, watch just about any player the week following a week during which they garner significant attention. It’s most often a bust.

There are exceptions to the Spotlight Effect — see, e.g., Jason Allen and Jessee Mahelona. The exceptions are generally found in very mature and experienced players, those that not only are solid character guys, but have probably already fallen victim to the Spotlight Effect a time or two and vowed to never let it happen again.

Still the general rule holds true. When the Spotlight shines, the team, unit, or player often wilts, and when the Spotlight is directed away from the team, the unit, or the player, they excel in the peripheral glow in an attempt to get back into the Spotlight.

So, under the Spotlight Effect, who’s due for good and bad performances this week against the dreaded Georgia Bulldogs?

Expect Good Games from:

• The Wide Receiver Corps. The “this is one of the most talented group of receivers in the country” meme is finally dying off. The receivers have been praised to high heaven since the final whistle last season, and it was only this week that a new meme began to propagate. Former Vol and current lawyer and sports agent Tim Irwin apparently called them out on a local t.v. or radio show earlier this week saying that they “looked like Tarzan and played like Jane.” John Pennington has been saying the same thing for a few weeks now, and Knoxville sports radio hosts and callers have jumped on the band wagon this week. So, the Spotlight is off the group and they finally have something to prove. Expect that they will.
• Rick Clausen.This poor guy is still not getting getting his due. UT fans seem to appreciate him — in a sort of backhanded way. “Oh, he’s a great leader and decision-maker. Too bad he can’t do anything but dink it around.” So everyone, including the coaches, are telling Rick that he can’t throw the long ball. You’d think they’d have learned not to tell Rick he can’t do something. Maybe he can’t throw it 80 yards, but I don’t know that he can’t throw it 40 or 50, and really, that’s plenty. And so what if he can’t? Isn’t he the same style of quarterback as David Greene, who became the winningest quarterback in SEC history? Check that, in NCAA history. I think that Rick is too mature and experienced to suffer the negative effects of having the Spotlight shine on him, but I think he’s still motivated by people telling him he can’t do it.

Expect a Poor Game from:

• The Secondary. In stark contrast to the high expectations of the wide receiver corps, everyone has said from day one that the Vols’ biggest weakness was its secondary (apart from Jason Allen). But the thing is, they’ve actually played quite well. For two games in a row now, the secondary has made big plays, first with Jonathan Heffney’s interception-for-an-almost-touchdown against LSU and second with Jonathan Wade’s interception-for-a-touchdown last week against Ole Miss, and the group has rightly received its due this week from local media and fans. Unfortunately, Spotlight Theory suggests that will be the kiss of death this week or next. Let’s hope, though, that this group is mature and experienced enough to thwart the theory. Allen can, and perhaps Wade has learned his lesson (subscription required):
  

  “Last year, there were times when I might have had a good game and it went to my head,” Wade said. “Then, the next game was just horrendous.

  “I know now that one game means nothing if the rest of them are bad. I’m just trying to stay humble and stay focused.”

Let’s hope.

The Tennessee Volunteers arguably didn’t get the bump they deserved for beating the LSU Tigers last Monday night (because the win was after last week’s Coaches’ Poll), but they survived a potential let-down game against the Ole Miss Rebels.

Here are the horses after Week Five:

The Gators fall out of the top ten to number 15 after getting thumped by the Alabama Crimson Tide, who enter the race at number 10. The Gators’ loss makes the Vols’ loss to the Gators look worse, but it’s a necessary evil because the Vols have virtually no chance at the Rose Bowl without winning the SEC Championship, and they can’t do that unless the Gators lose two SEC games. The Gators losing to Bama is a good start, and they play both Georgia and LSU in the next several weeks, so it’s not out of the question. Plus, the Vols can redeem themselves by beating the Crimson Tide if Bama is still in the top ten at that time.

Again, look at UT’s schedule:

• Play Florida when the Gators are ranked, what was it, number 5?
• Play LSU when the Tigers are ranked number 4.
• Play Georgia this week when the Bulldogs are ranked number 4.
• Play Alabama and Notre Dame later, who are now numbers 10 and 12, respectively.

Potentially 5 top ten teams. Maybe another in the SEC Championship. If the Vols can come out of that schedule with only one loss, should they be ranked above even some no-loss teams with lesser schedules?

• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason