Even as the Tennessee Volunteers have come up lame, stumbled, fallen, fallen, and fallen out of the Top 25 altogether, the Race to the Rose Bowl goes on.

Georgia drops out of the top ten after losing to the Gators, and USC takes over the top spot it lost last week to the Longhorns.

Tonight’s game between the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Miami Hurricanes is huge. Plus, there are still a lot of games that either will or could impact the Race:

• USC at California, November 12, 2005
• LSU at Alabama, November 12, 2005 (3:30, CBS, maybe)
• Texas at Texas A&M, November 25, 2005 (12:00, ABC)
• Florida State at Florida, November 26, 2005 (3:30, CBS)
• UCLA at USC, December 3, 2005 (4:30, ABC)

College Football News’ Road to the Rose Bowl has Five Unbeaten Contenders — USC, Texas, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and UCLA — and eight No Margin for Errors — Miami, Penn State, LSU, Florida State, Georgia, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Texas Tech.

• Week Eight
• Week Seven
• Week Six
• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

Scout.com’s Jeffrey Stewart draws Notre Dame in the site’s weekly Devil’s Advocate feature. For those unfamiliar with the column, Stewart and Randy Moore, both excellent sports writers, take sides, each making the case for a win by the team they draw. For his part, Stewart starts out with a bang:

Making a case for Notre Dame beating Tennessee in South Bend on Saturday is a little like vouching for Bill Gates’ credit. In other words, the only real obstacle to overcome is — where to begin?

These are two teams headed in opposite directions at the speed of light. The Fighting Irish are reborn under first year head coach Charlie Weis, the mastermind behind a potent offensive attack that is putting points on the scoreboard in bunches. With a 5-2 record that includes victories over Pittsburgh, Michigan, Washington, Purdue and Brigham Young, Notre Dame is best known for its instant classic cliffhanger last month against defending national champion and undefeated USC. That near victory propelled the Irish back into the top ten where they remain today at No. 9.

Conversely, Tennessee is in the depths of a spiraling free fall from a preseason ranking of No. 3 through a 3-4 start, until it was finally spit out of the bottom of national polls last week, following a 16-15 defeat to that other USC. The one with the roosters on its helmet and no national championships under its belt.

The Vols dramatic demise is the result of an offense that rarely has a pulse and produces points at the pace of the Tunisian national ice hockey team. If you say it’s not fair to compare Tennessee’s offense to a team that doesn’t exist. Well, I rest my case.

Pretty much nails it, doesn’t it?

On the other side, Moore is hanging his hat on this week’s offensive shake-up.

Moore does an admirable job, but you’ve got to go with Stewart and Notre Dame this week.

Pete Fiutak of College Football News says the Tennessee Volunteers’ schedule is as brutal as it gets:

Well, there is some excuse for Tennessee. I don’t care what any formula says, playing at Florida, at LSU, Georgia, at Alabama, and at Notre Dame is as brutal as it gets. Based on winning percentage, the teams with the toughest schedules played so far are: 1) Arkansas, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Tennessee, and tied for fourth are South Florida and Michigan. Going into this weekend, if you want to go by the teams with the toughest schedules yet to be played, they are 1) Cal, 2) Stanford, 3) Iowa, 4) USC, 5) Kansas.

John Pennington has examined teams’ perceived recruiting successes in the past few years and compared them with those teams’ current rankings.

Here are Pennington’s top ten recruiters over the last five years and their current BCS rank:

1. Southern Cal: #2 in BCS
2. Michigan: #25 in BCS
3. LSU: #8 in BCS
4. Oklahoma: NR in BCS
5. Florida State: #10 in BCS
6. Miami: #7 in BCS
7. Tennessee: NR in BCS
8. Texas: #1 in BCS
9. Florida: #19 in BCS
10. Ohio State: #13 in BCS

Pennington’s info is much more exhaustive than the above list. His data brings to light several interesting facts. On one hand, the current top two BCS teams — Southern Cal and Texas — have excelled in recruiting, so that would suggest that there is a positive correlation between recruiting success and winning games.

On the other hand, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Tennessee have recruited well, and have been terrible disappointments so far this season. Plus, some of the other data shows the vast disparity between the current success of teams that have enjoyed about equal recruiting success.

My take is that we fans too often fall victim to the old necessary-sufficient fallacy. In order to win regularly, a school must have a certain level of success in luring top players to the team, but simply having good players is not enough. There are just too many other factors that come into play.

The Tennessee Volunteers get a great chance to redeem themselves and improve their national standing when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on archrival Alabama. This game is too close to call: the Vol defense should make it difficult for the Crimson Tide offense to be productive, and the Bama defense won’t make it easy for the Vol offense to get on track. Heck, even collegefootballnews.com can’t make up its mind.

Some other games of interest to Volunteer fans this weekend:

• Auburn at LSU. This one’s sorta hard to figure. LSU is ranked higher than Auburn, so you’d think you’d want Auburn to win, but an LSU victory makes the Vols’ earlier victory over LSU look better, and an LSU loss would probably only have the effect of substituting Auburn for LSU in the top ten anyway. It’s really a toss up on whom to root for, but I’m going with LSU.
• Arkansas at Georgia. This one, however, is a no-brainer. Wooooo Pigs Soooie!
• Texas Tech at Texas. Tech burst into the top ten last week, and the Longhorns may be due for a letdown. Really, they both need to lose, but this might be the other UT’s only real challenge for the rest of the year.
• Georgia Tech at Miami. Georgia Tech beat Auburn earlier this year. Can they pull off another upset?
• Penn State at Illinois. Will Penn State have a hangover after a tought loss last week at Michigan? Will it matter?
• Oregon State at UCLA. Can the Beavers knock off a top ten team two weeks in a row?

CFN has the TV listings.

College Football News’ John Harris is bucking CFN’s official pick (Tennessee 16, Alabama 13) and making his own.

According to Harris, the key matchups in tomorrow’s game between the Volunteers and the Crimson Tide are:

• the ability of Tennessee’s defensive line to beat Alabama’s offensive line and the Bama run attack
• the Alabama wide receiver corps (which has lost Tyrone Prothro, its best receiver) against the Tennessee secondary (which has lost Jason Allen, its best cover corner and tackler)
• the Vol offensive line, which has been struggling, against the Tide front seven, which has been exceptional.

Harris’ conclusion?

After the close call at Ole Miss last week, the Tide returns this week to Tuscaloosa, where they played an almost flawless game against Florida. They’ll need to continue to harness the emotion and passion of the Tide faithful to knock off a desperate Tennessee team. Similar to the way that Michigan fought back against undefeated Penn State, expect Tennessee to take Bama’s best shot and hang around for four quarters. Brodie Croyle will be the difference as he’ll continue to find open receivers and move the ball as they have this season. He’ll need a big play from one of his receivers, and expect him to get one that wins the game for the Tide. Alabama – 21 vs. Tennessee – 20

Pete Fiutak’s Cavalcade of Whimsy this week includes this great bit:

The Yosemite Sam Award that goes to the man who was able to yell the loudest and get the angriest without cursing goes to Michigan State head coach John L. Smith. His halftime rant to/at ABC’s Jack Arute about the blocked field goal that went for an Ohio State touchdown would’ve been the most memorable moment of the season if it didn’t fall on the same day as that USC – Notre Dame thing. Only Kennedy and Khrushchev during the Cuban missile crisis had their fingers closer to the button than the ABC censor did last Saturday.

Hear it for yourself:

John Pennington’s random thoughts for the day:

• Is there a happy medium between a Johnny Majors-esque live-in-fear-for-your-job mentality with respect to assistant coaches and the Fulmer-ish we-are-all-a-family approach?
• Ohio State fans handle disappointment better than Tennessee fans.

OSU is a mirror of UT in almost EVERY way this season. But their fans packed the stadium and were IN the game from start to finish. Even when Michigan State was capitalizing on OSU special teams fumbles… the fans would immediately re-charge their batteries and begin screaming again with the ensuing kickoff.

That’s what Neyland Stadium USED to be. Personally, I think Vol fans grew spoiled during the Manning Era (and the immediate aftermath) and now they look at the game as they would a film or an opera. “Entertain me!” Sure that’s a fair assessment.

But Vol fans used to look at the games as THEIR chance to get involved. They seemed to believe that they were as important a part of a Vol victory as the team was. And that’s a far cry from, “Entertain me!”

• An outsider’s perspective on Neyland Stadium:

“The most uncomfortable stadium in America.” The seats are too small from side-to-side and there’s very little room front-to-back, either (according to [Pennington's friend]). If you’re not driving your knees into someone’s back, then somebody else has theirs in yours.

• Volunteer bowl projections look disappointing.
• You know any Kentucky football coach has his work cut out for him when the local media has pre-game coverage of a basketball practice during football season.
• Calls to replace Randy Sanders with Trooper Taylor because Trooper offers a lot of excitement is like “choosing a doctor because he’s got good hair.”
• Gerald Riggs is “Cedric Houston Part 2.” Good, but not great.
• The guy who created firerandysanders.com (intentionally not a link) deserves the same treatment. Go read Pennington’s suggestions here.
• Tennessee might have been able to beat Alabama last week, but now that the Crimson Tide has had their wake-up call, it’s much more difficult to call.

Pennington, as always, is full of insight. Today’s blog is lengthy, but worth the read.

Something really struck me while I was writing this post.

WARNING! PREPARE YOURSELF FOR SHOCKING NEWS:

The Tennessee Volunteers are not dead yet. Okay, so maybe they’re mostly dead, but as Miracle Max said in The Princess Bride, “There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.”

But before I get to that, here are the top ten horses after Week Six:

Okay, so here’s what happened this past weekend. Ohio State, who lost to Penn State, and Tennessee dropped out of the top ten, and Miami consequently moved up two spots to No. 6. California dropped out after losing to UCLA, and Alabama consequently moved up behind Miami. LSU found itself back in the hunt at No. 8, and newcomers Notre Dame and Penn State entered the race at Nos. 9 and 10 respectively.

Tennessee tumbled all the way to No. 18 after losing to the Georgia Bulldogs.

Not to say the drop is unjustified at all, but really, look at their schedule:

• Lost at Florida when the Gators were ranked No. 7.
• Won at LSU when the Tigers were ranked No. 4.
• Lost against Georgia when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 4.
• Scheduled to play Alabama (currently No. 7) next and Notre Dame (currently No. 9) later.

If (and yes, it’s a big if) the Volunteers can win against Alabama and Notre Dame, they will have won three of five games against top ten opponents. Is that really the end of the world as we know it? What if Notre Dame can upset USC this weekend at South Bend? (Okay, okay, I know. If they beat USC, we haven’t got a chance against them, but dream with me, won’t you?)

Yes, Tennessee’s two losses will have been against SEC East opponents Florida and Georgia and will have cost them any shot at an SEC or even an SEC East title. And because of that, they have no chance at the Rose Bowl. But they should still be able to get back into the top ten with quality wins against the Crimson Tide and the Irish.

Of course, with the way the Vols have been playing, predicting any win is a risky proposition, but the point remains:

The Volunteers are only mostly dead.

• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

John Pennington makes the case for a change in the Tennessee Volunteers’ football philosophy.

Like any good argument, Pennington’s starts by establishing a solid factual premise. The stats, he says, clearly show that the Volunteer football program is on the decline:

• The Johnny Majors Era. From 1985 to 1992, Tennessee got blown out (defined as losing by 13 points or more) only once every season on average.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part I. From 1992 to 2001, the Vols got blown out, on average, once every two and a half seasons.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part II. Since 2002, the Vols are being blown out about twice per season.

Having established the first premise, Pennington sets up the second, that the reason for the decline is a failure to adapt to changing times:

But I do believe that Fulmer needs to realize that the game has “caught up” with him a bit. Since the Vols’ terrible 2nd half vs LSU in 2001 (that cost them a slot in the BCS National Title Game), the Vols have gone from GREAT to GOOD.

In other words, what worked with Manning & Lewis, Martin & Henry and Shuler & Garner… hasn’t worked as well with Clausens, Houstons, and Riggs running many of the same plays. (Those are all good players, but they’re not early-round NFL draft pick-type players).

* * * *

This isn’t a unique phenomenon. Steve Spurrier ruled the SEC roost for nearly a decade, only to see the rest of the league catch up to him around the turn of the century… dropping his Gators to a yearly 9-2 level. (Still quite good, but not a National Title contender.) Rather than adjust, Spurrier fled to the pros. Now that he’s back in the SEC, will he adjust his system to match his talents? We’ll see.

Pennington then concludes that Coach Fulmer should remedy the failure to adapt to the times by reconsidering his football philosophy. Perhaps a “tweak,” sort of like Joe Paterno’s, whose chucking of the I-don’t-play-freshman world view has led to Penn State’s best start in years.

Or perhaps something more drastic, like Bear Bryant’s legendary 1971 scrapping of Alabama’s traditional offensive scheme in favor of the wishbone, which Pennington said “was equivalent to the Mississippi River running backwards.”

Pennington’s conclusion:

The point is this, if a coach isn’t moving forward, he’s moving backward. The coaches with the greatest longevity and success are the ones who are able to re-invent themselves (or at least “tweak” their systems) when there are signs of cracks in the foundation.

I believe the stats above show cracks in the foundation. The SEC and the nation are catching up to Phillip Fulmer. Will he be willing to make some changes? Or will he suffer the consequences of standing still?

Time will tell.