Something really struck me while I was writing this post.

WARNING! PREPARE YOURSELF FOR SHOCKING NEWS:

The Tennessee Volunteers are not dead yet. Okay, so maybe they’re mostly dead, but as Miracle Max said in The Princess Bride, “There’s a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive.”

But before I get to that, here are the top ten horses after Week Six:

Okay, so here’s what happened this past weekend. Ohio State, who lost to Penn State, and Tennessee dropped out of the top ten, and Miami consequently moved up two spots to No. 6. California dropped out after losing to UCLA, and Alabama consequently moved up behind Miami. LSU found itself back in the hunt at No. 8, and newcomers Notre Dame and Penn State entered the race at Nos. 9 and 10 respectively.

Tennessee tumbled all the way to No. 18 after losing to the Georgia Bulldogs.

Not to say the drop is unjustified at all, but really, look at their schedule:

• Lost at Florida when the Gators were ranked No. 7.
• Won at LSU when the Tigers were ranked No. 4.
• Lost against Georgia when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 4.
• Scheduled to play Alabama (currently No. 7) next and Notre Dame (currently No. 9) later.

If (and yes, it’s a big if) the Volunteers can win against Alabama and Notre Dame, they will have won three of five games against top ten opponents. Is that really the end of the world as we know it? What if Notre Dame can upset USC this weekend at South Bend? (Okay, okay, I know. If they beat USC, we haven’t got a chance against them, but dream with me, won’t you?)

Yes, Tennessee’s two losses will have been against SEC East opponents Florida and Georgia and will have cost them any shot at an SEC or even an SEC East title. And because of that, they have no chance at the Rose Bowl. But they should still be able to get back into the top ten with quality wins against the Crimson Tide and the Irish.

Of course, with the way the Vols have been playing, predicting any win is a risky proposition, but the point remains:

The Volunteers are only mostly dead.

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See the Race to the Rose Bowl from the beginning:

• Week Five
• Week Four
• Week Three
• Week Two
• Week One
• Preseason

John Pennington makes the case for a change in the Tennessee Volunteers’ football philosophy.

Like any good argument, Pennington’s starts by establishing a solid factual premise. The stats, he says, clearly show that the Volunteer football program is on the decline:

• The Johnny Majors Era. From 1985 to 1992, Tennessee got blown out (defined as losing by 13 points or more) only once every season on average.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part I. From 1992 to 2001, the Vols got blown out, on average, once every two and a half seasons.
• The Phillip Fulmer Era, Part II. Since 2002, the Vols are being blown out about twice per season.

Having established the first premise, Pennington sets up the second, that the reason for the decline is a failure to adapt to changing times:

But I do believe that Fulmer needs to realize that the game has “caught up” with him a bit. Since the Vols’ terrible 2nd half vs LSU in 2001 (that cost them a slot in the BCS National Title Game), the Vols have gone from GREAT to GOOD.

In other words, what worked with Manning & Lewis, Martin & Henry and Shuler & Garner… hasn’t worked as well with Clausens, Houstons, and Riggs running many of the same plays. (Those are all good players, but they’re not early-round NFL draft pick-type players).

* * * *

This isn’t a unique phenomenon. Steve Spurrier ruled the SEC roost for nearly a decade, only to see the rest of the league catch up to him around the turn of the century… dropping his Gators to a yearly 9-2 level. (Still quite good, but not a National Title contender.) Rather than adjust, Spurrier fled to the pros. Now that he’s back in the SEC, will he adjust his system to match his talents? We’ll see.

Pennington then concludes that Coach Fulmer should remedy the failure to adapt to the times by reconsidering his football philosophy. Perhaps a “tweak,” sort of like Joe Paterno’s, whose chucking of the I-don’t-play-freshman world view has led to Penn State’s best start in years.

Or perhaps something more drastic, like Bear Bryant’s legendary 1971 scrapping of Alabama’s traditional offensive scheme in favor of the wishbone, which Pennington said “was equivalent to the Mississippi River running backwards.”

Pennington’s conclusion:

The point is this, if a coach isn’t moving forward, he’s moving backward. The coaches with the greatest longevity and success are the ones who are able to re-invent themselves (or at least “tweak” their systems) when there are signs of cracks in the foundation.

I believe the stats above show cracks in the foundation. The SEC and the nation are catching up to Phillip Fulmer. Will he be willing to make some changes? Or will he suffer the consequences of standing still?

Time will tell.

Fixin to head down to Knoxville and Neyland Stadium with Freaktoe to see the Tennessee Vols take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Hoping for a big win.

Of course, the Vols need a big win to stay in the Race to the Rose Bowl. Here are the other important games in the Race, from a Rocky Top perspective:

Best Chances for the Volunteers to Advance

• No. 2 Texas v. Oklahoma. The Red River Shootout has been the other UT’s can’t-get-over-the-hump game for years. They should get it done this year against a sub-par Oklahoma team, but the Longhorns could suffer adverse consequences from the Spotlight Effect.
• No. 6 Ohio State v. Penn State. Ohio State probably wins this one, but as-yet undefeated Penn State is on a mini-roll, and might pull off an upset.

Long Shots for the Volunteers to Advance

• No. 1 Southern Cal v. Arizona.
• No. 3 Virginia Tech v. Marshall.
• No. 5 Florida State v. Wake Forest.

College Football News’ weekly Road to the Rose Bowl is up. There are 6 Unbeaten Contenders (Southern Cal, Texas, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia, and Alabama), 6 Unbeaten Longshots (Cal, Wisconsin, Penn State, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Nebraska), and 17 No Margin for Errors (including Tennessee). The Tennessee Volunteers get a couple of chances to decrease the number of Unbeaten Contenders over the next couple of weeks, as they host the Georgia Bulldogs this Saturday (CFN’s lock-yourself-in-a-room-to-watch game) and travel to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide two weeks after that.